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  #271  
Old 11-01-2017, 11:55 AM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Oh I am not talking about a lot of M47's - I think if Mexico does buy tanks it will be at most a battalion or so - and they may not even do that - the more I read about the X1A the more I can see them sending those 45 M3/M5 they have to be turned into those - and possibly buy more from Brazil.

Definitely turns a WWII dinosaur into a much more effective tank
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  #272  
Old 11-01-2017, 12:06 PM
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Oh I am not talking about a lot of M47's - I think if Mexico does buy tanks it will be at most a battalion or so - and they may not even do that - the more I read about the X1A the more I can see them sending those 45 M3/M5 they have to be turned into those - and possibly buy more from Brazil.

Definitely turns a WWII dinosaur into a much more effective tank
The U.S. and NATO planned to upgrade the M47's stored in Italy during the later Cold War, but then the Cold War ended and they weren't needed. But given how much NATO was out numbered by the Warsaw Pact in Europe in the Cold War there is no way that the U.S. is going to send a battalion or more of tanks to Mexico.

Considering how little money Mexico had to spend on defence during and after the Cold War how would it afford all of the equipment you are proposing?
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  #273  
Old 11-01-2017, 12:45 PM
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Lets look at the equipment

they had the money to buy several hundred AMX-VCI APC's and BDX APC's and then rework them and rearm them in real life in the early to mid 90's - thus this gives us a base for what they had to spend

So what are we looking at - 36 SPG's per the canon - all of them older models and ones that countries would be looking to get rid of

rebuild 45 light tanks into better tanks - or even buy ones that the Brazilians were retiring - not that expensive a cost

adding about 180 APC's of some sort and maybe not that many if you count the home build ones they had to get to the canon numbers - thats where the real spend would be and also buying MILAN or HOT missiles

thus could they have the money - the answer is yes - if they had the money for the AMX/BDX buy in real life they most likely had the money for the kind of buy I am proposing

What they didnt have was the money for the Mexican Sourcebook buy of literally over a thousand tanks - that they didnt have the money for unless you postulate a huge increase in oil prices
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  #274  
Old 11-01-2017, 01:58 PM
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Lets look at the equipment

they had the money to buy several hundred AMX-VCI APC's and BDX APC's and then rework them and rearm them in real life in the early to mid 90's - thus this gives us a base for what they had to spend

So what are we looking at - 36 SPG's per the canon - all of them older models and ones that countries would be looking to get rid of

rebuild 45 light tanks into better tanks - or even buy ones that the Brazilians were retiring - not that expensive a cost

adding about 180 APC's of some sort and maybe not that many if you count the home build ones they had to get to the canon numbers - thats where the real spend would be and also buying MILAN or HOT missiles

thus could they have the money - the answer is yes - if they had the money for the AMX/BDX buy in real life they most likely had the money for the kind of buy I am proposing

What they didnt have was the money for the Mexican Sourcebook buy of literally over a thousand tanks - that they didnt have the money for unless you postulate a huge increase in oil prices
All of that would point to a major change in the direction of Mexican defence policy that never occurred during or after the Cold War.

Did the AMX-VCI/BDX buy occur during the Cold war, and with all the surplus defence equipment floating about after the end of the Cold War why did Mexico choose these old vehicles when it could have its choice of anything it wanted?

How many actual military vehicles are recorder as transferred from Belgium to Mexico? How long did the Mexicans take to covert all of them to DCN-1? Would upgrading and converting 40 year old SP howitzers without any parts being made be an easy thing? And then on top of that Mexico finds the money and expertise to buy and convert light tanks from Brazil, and then buy a whole load of anti-tank missiles from France?

That's a lot of effort for very little gain. If Mexico has money why not just buy some new or used material in good condition from France.
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  #275  
Old 11-01-2017, 02:41 PM
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The light tanks from Brazil would have been already converted if they bought ones from Brazil. They did that back in the 1970-80's. The X1A and it's variants were already done by Brazil and they are the ones who would have the expertise to be able to convert the Mexican tanks. And the company in Brazil was looking for more customers for conversions of their tanks. And that was done during the Cold War.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/co...ardini-X1A.php

Bernardini S/A Industria e Comercio (Bernardini Industrial and Commerce Company) of Sao Paulo was funded 1912. It was already a well-established vehicle manufacturer when it first earned a contract for the modernization of the M41 Walker Bulldog in service to the M41B and M41C standard

Variants
X1A (1975) – Based on the M3A1 Light Tank with a new diesel Saab-Scania 280 hp engine, improved suspension, improved armor, new fire control system, DEFA 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon, new turret. 80 converted. The first 80 vehicles were modernized from 1975 to 1978. They were given to Cavalry Regiments under the designation X1. Also known as the CC MB1 (Combat Car, Brazilian Model nr. 1) or X1A, it remained in service until the 1990’s.

X1A1 Carcara (1977) – Prototype with an improved chassis and six bogies, which never made it into production.

X1A2 (1979) – Final version based on the previous X1A1, and completely overhauled. Weighing 19 tons, it was armed with a new 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon and new 300 hp diesel engine. 30 rebuilt in 1982-83. Those 30 are actually in reserve still for the Brazilian Army to date.


As for the AMX- VCI/BDX they were bought in real life after the end of the Cold War and the numbers are public record - 400+ . So if in real life they had the money in the early 90's to make that buy then it's a good bet they had that money in the canon as well. If so that could be where the money comes from for the SPG's and APC's in the canon. And the numbers they would have needed easily are within that budget they had in real life. Keep in mind that Mexico had already bought 200+ armored cars and APCs and 80 MILAN missiles in the mid-1980s. Thus a second buy of similar size is definitely possible.

However a 1000 plus buy of tanks and APC's of the Mexican Sourcebook would be way beyond that level of budget

That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash

Last edited by Olefin; 11-01-2017 at 06:17 PM.
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  #276  
Old 11-01-2017, 06:15 PM
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Its too bad we dont know how much the sales actually were in a monetary sense to Mexico - i.e. how much Mexico paid for the vehicles, missiles, etc.. they bought - given that you could extrapolate as to what they could buy new versus second hand - or even use that to say ok thats either 100 AMX-VCI secondhand or 40 new VCR-TT or whatever
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  #277  
Old 11-01-2017, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash
My timeline has that 100%. Middle East oil is disrupted and Russia Mexico and Venezuela reap the benefits.
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  #278  
Old 11-01-2017, 08:36 PM
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Looking at Belgium (based on Mexico's acquisition of Belgian APCs), what about the old Kanonenjagdpanzer 90s that Belgium got from Germany? In our timeline, they left service in the late 80s (I think), but in either the V1 or V2 timelines, they may have been sold to Mexico instead, since they're obsolete (it uses the M47's main gun), but better than what Mexico had.
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  #279  
Old 11-01-2017, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by RN7 View Post
All of that would point to a major change in the direction of Mexican defence policy that never occurred during or after the Cold War.

Did the AMX-VCI/BDX buy occur during the Cold war, and with all the surplus defence equipment floating about after the end of the Cold War why did Mexico choose these old vehicles when it could have its choice of anything it wanted?

How many actual military vehicles are recorder as transferred from Belgium to Mexico? How long did the Mexicans take to covert all of them to DCN-1? Would upgrading and converting 40 year old SP howitzers without any parts being made be an easy thing? And then on top of that Mexico finds the money and expertise to buy and convert light tanks from Brazil, and then buy a whole load of anti-tank missiles from France?

That's a lot of effort for very little gain. If Mexico has money why not just buy some new or used material in good condition from France.
Well here is some info

http://www.un-register.org/HeavyWeap...s.aspx?CoI=128

1994 - 95 BDX 168 AMX from Belgium to Mexico
1995 - 97 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico
1996 - 136 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico

Now those would be the AMX-VCI's - 401 total over three years

You also have the 28 LAV-150's the US sold Mexico in 1994
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  #280  
Old 11-01-2017, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
Well here is some info

http://www.un-register.org/HeavyWeap...s.aspx?CoI=128

1994 - 95 BDX 168 AMX from Belgium to Mexico
1995 - 97 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico
1996 - 136 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico

Now those would be the AMX-VCI's - 401 total over three years

You also have the 28 LAV-150's the US sold Mexico in 1994

This site states in the national reports from Mexico that...

In 1994 Mexico received 70 BDX from Belgium, 268 AMX-13 (I presume VCI) from France, and 1 Fox from Britain.
In 1995 Mexico received 136 AMX-13 from Belgium.
In 1996 Mexico received 5 AMX-13 (Heavy) from Belgium

Then in the Mexico references to other countries reports it states...

In 1994 Mexico received 95 BDX and 168 AMX-13 from Belgium, and 28 ACV (unknown type) from the USA
In 1995 Mexico received 97 AMX-13 from Belgium
In 1996 Mexico received 136 AMX-13 from Belgium

The figures from both column don't add up, and they are contrary to the accurate SIPRA Arms Transfers Database at https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers
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  #281  
Old 11-01-2017, 10:55 PM
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The light tanks from Brazil would have been already converted if they bought ones from Brazil. They did that back in the 1970-80's. The X1A and it's variants were already done by Brazil and they are the ones who would have the expertise to be able to convert the Mexican tanks. And the company in Brazil was looking for more customers for conversions of their tanks. And that was done during the Cold War.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/co...ardini-X1A.php

Bernardini S/A Industria e Comercio (Bernardini Industrial and Commerce Company) of Sao Paulo was funded 1912. It was already a well-established vehicle manufacturer when it first earned a contract for the modernization of the M41 Walker Bulldog in service to the M41B and M41C standard

Variants
X1A (1975) Based on the M3A1 Light Tank with a new diesel Saab-Scania 280 hp engine, improved suspension, improved armor, new fire control system, DEFA 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon, new turret. 80 converted. The first 80 vehicles were modernized from 1975 to 1978. They were given to Cavalry Regiments under the designation X1. Also known as the CC MB1 (Combat Car, Brazilian Model nr. 1) or X1A, it remained in service until the 1990s.

X1A1 Carcara (1977) Prototype with an improved chassis and six bogies, which never made it into production.

X1A2 (1979) Final version based on the previous X1A1, and completely overhauled. Weighing 19 tons, it was armed with a new 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon and new 300 hp diesel engine. 30 rebuilt in 1982-83. Those 30 are actually in reserve still for the Brazilian Army to date.


As for the AMX- VCI/BDX they were bought in real life after the end of the Cold War and the numbers are public record - 400+ . So if in real life they had the money in the early 90's to make that buy then it's a good bet they had that money in the canon as well. If so that could be where the money comes from for the SPG's and APC's in the canon. And the numbers they would have needed easily are within that budget they had in real life. Keep in mind that Mexico had already bought 200+ armored cars and APCs and 80 MILAN missiles in the mid-1980s. Thus a second buy of similar size is definitely possible.

However a 1000 plus buy of tanks and APC's of the Mexican Sourcebook would be way beyond that level of budget

That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash

Well Olefin you may not agree with Mexico having a 1,000 plus buy of tanks and APC's in the Mexican Sourcebook, and to be honest I don't agree with the numbers either. But its definitely on the right path to giving the Mexicans a fighting chance against U.S. forces in the southwest.

Also the numbers you have been proposing on other posts are not that far off the Mexican Sourcebook, although the type of equipment is obviously different. But to be honest with you it would be a lot easier for Mexico to buy a battalion or two of tanks and other used or new equipment from France than going to the trouble of acquiring inferior equipment from other sources and then converting it to a standard that will still be lower than what they could get from France. After all as you have said Mexico is flush with oil money!

What Mexico needs is a tank killer, either tanks or anti-tank missiles, to take on American tanks. No matter what they could conceivably get they are not going to be able to handle an M1A1 outside of bushwacking them from the rear, but it is possible that there are not that many M1A1s in the southwest. On the other hand a modern tank or more powerful anti-tank missiles could take on M60's and baseline M1's with some success.
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  #282  
Old 11-01-2017, 11:46 PM
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The question again is more what does Mexico have for money for getting equipment - and an oil bonanza isnt in the canon (but just because its not mentioned doesnt mean it didnt happen)

In reality they got close to 500 old Belgian APC's that they bought second hand for bargain prices because the Belgians had to get rid of them per the treaty.

In V1 the Cold War is still going strong and they wont get that deal - but in V2.2 they would have most likely (again the treaty that forced vehicle reductions in Europe in V2.2 versus no treaty in V1)

But its a big step from there to the Mexican Sourcebook - and I think a step too far - just too many tanks and APC's and self propelled guns and ..... - i.e. its too big a build up to be believable that the depleted US forces could have stopped them

i.e. 1400 tanks versus a few light foot infantry divisions, one tank division and one under strength mech division with limited ammo and no air support would have been a massacre - i.e. you would have seen the Mexican flag waving over St Louis by the time they were done

when you read the canon per Frank Chadwick you see all he has is the Mexican's using two mechanized infantry brigades and three cavalry regiments that were battalion sized to do most of the heavy lifting vs a vs armored thrusts in the invasion - that right there shows just how small US forces must have been as to armor equipment that a force that size, supported by infantry brigades that dont have much in the way of armor, succeeded as they did

that and the complete lack of any mention of Mexican tanks in Red Star Lone Star I would think shows that any large tank buildup is very unlikely - but a smaller one that got ground up in the attack and thus by 2001 all thats left of them is rusting knocked out junk dotting the plains of Texas and valleys and deserts of CA with maybe a couple of survivors here and there - that makes a lot of sense considering the size of the opposition they faced (and the fact that Soviet Division Cuba seems to have done a lot of the heavy lifting stopping the 49th cold in Texas)

and there is a very real possible tank killer - i.e. the VCR-TH that had the HOT missiles - that they could have had to supplement the VBL's with MILAN's that they had from the 80's - after all they already had 48 VCR variants in their army
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  #283  
Old 11-02-2017, 06:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
and an oil bonanza isnt in the canon (but just because its not mentioned doesnt mean it didnt happen)
(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.
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  #284  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:02 PM
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An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles? Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.
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  #285  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kato13 View Post
(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.
Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.
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  #286  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:25 PM
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An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles? Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.
Per Frank Chadwick who helped write Red Star Lone Star this is the canon strength


Mechanized Infantry Brigades - 2

Each with two mech inf regiments with 40 VAB APC, one armored recon regiment (which was the size of a battalion) with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC and one SPG battalion of 6 M109 and 12 M108's

Thus the total he had for SPG's was 12 M109 and 24 M108 for the whole Mexican Army (i.e. betting he didnt know they had the 5 M8 Scott's)

There were also:

Armored Cav Regiments (sized as a battalion) - 3

Each with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC

Regional Brigades - i.e. Inf Brigades - 36 regional brigades

Each averaging one motorized cav regiment (really a battalion - see below), two infantry regiments and one battery of artillery

thus an armored cav regiment had a total of 51 vehicles, 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC (defined as a squadron of of seventeen vehicles of ERC-90 and two squadrons of VAB APC)

so a little bigger but pretty close there RN7! Good estimate!
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  #287  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:26 PM
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Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.
and they also were exporting Russians as well especially what they called undesirables in the Soviet era
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  #288  
Old 11-02-2017, 01:29 PM
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FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/...ices_Table.asp


year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28
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  #289  
Old 11-02-2017, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kato13 View Post
(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.
I like it, Kato.
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  #290  
Old 11-02-2017, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/...ices_Table.asp


year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28

In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.
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  #291  
Old 11-02-2017, 04:43 PM
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FYI one idea for where Mexico got the money to buy new equipment - the US

We give Mexico a lot of military assistance and aid - and I can see a Mexican official going to the US and saying "we need military assistance to be able to build up our army to resist the threat from the Nicaraguans and their Soviet allies" and the US saying "sure that sounds like a great idea"

and then a few years later really not thinking so when the equipment said aid bought starts pouring across the Rio Grande
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  #292  
Old 11-02-2017, 04:45 PM
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In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.
I would say earlier - starting with the Soviet China War, peaking and then going down, then peaking again in October of 1996 and going from there - and could be another source for late buys for Mexico from places like Brazil or Argentina - i.e. where they thought there was no way any fighting could come near them
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  #293  
Old 11-03-2017, 08:43 PM
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Olefin, I believe that I may have seized upon an explanation for Howling Wilderness' seemingly nonsensical demobilization figures AND figured out a way for the U.S.A. to push Mexican forces off of American territory without those troops. AFAIK, the figures in HW refer solely to the U.S. troops returning home from Europe.

What about the 15,400 U.S. troops listed by the v1.0 U.S. Army Vehicle Guide as being in Korea in the summer of 2000. What if they were evacuated in late 2000/early 2001, and made back it to the west coast? 15,000 combat veterans could do a lot to eject the Mexican forces that remain on U.S. soil in early 2001. This could explain why most of the Omega evacuees are demobilized without breaking canon.

If you use this idea, I expect a credit.

Give it some thought.
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  #294  
Old 11-08-2017, 07:39 AM
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FYI starting to lean more towards the French Mk F3 155mm SPG (possibly with AMX-VCA support vehicles) as what the Mexicans would have had. Its an older gun that was still in service for sure both with the French and other countries, gives them a 155mm gun but is much more low cost and thus something Mexico could afford a lot easier. And considering Mexico's road and rail network its a light lighter than any other 155mm SPG they might be looking at.

Last edited by Olefin; 11-08-2017 at 07:54 AM.
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